Written by Ismail Beyaz, PhD student with SCENARIO DTP.
2024 is the year of elections (OCHR, 2024), and this is arguably influencing domestic, and in some instances international, policy on collective action against global warming. This was seen in multiple places, in the US, it was in the elections during which action against climate change was pushed into the background (Frost, 2024). In Germany, a poll by ARD was conducted where the energy policy and transition to renewable energy was ranked as the most important issue by only 7% voters (ARD-DeutschlandTREND, 2024). In India, relatively minor considerations given to climate change in the manifestos of Indian political parties BJP and the Congress (Jain, 2024). It can certainly be argued that domestically, politicians are, at the very least, glossing over global warming.
While domestic politics certainly has an impact on policy making at an international level, is it having a noticeable effect on COP29?
Overall, this can be a relatively moot point, of course politics influences policy making and negotiations at COP, politics is to an extent intrinsic to organising social groups and organising group action. COP is by nature a political structure as well, given its separation of delegations into partially politically defined categories, as well as the fact that COP is a part of the structure of international institutions, a political institution itself. This can threaten to turn the negotiations into being viewed as a zero-sum game by some, where climate finance is a loss for the countries providing it, and a win for the countries receiving it, providing a political barrier to progress. Secretary General of the UN Antonio Guterres rebukes this however, stating “Climate finance is not charity, it is an investment” at the COP29 opening ceremony, a sentiment echoed by Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, speaking of a need for “new financial instruments” to finance this change globally for the benefit of everyone.
With all this talk about financial agreements and investments, one can notice a potentially restrictive framing of the issue, arguably very neoliberal framing of the issue from many participants, with neoliberal being used to loosely define the deference to free markets and privatisation. President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev stated at the opening ceremony, “Countries should not be blamed for having them [natural resource such as oil] and should not be blamed for bringing these resources to the market because the market needs them, the people need them”. While certainly true in a neoliberal framing of the issue in terms of supply and demand, one may want to consider whether private corporations and ‘the market’ can really be trusted to act in the best interests of collective well-being rather than corporate profits. After all, why would Exxon Mobil be trusted to participate fairly in any agreements given it knew since the 1970s that climate change was happening (McCarthy, 2023)? Is this same ‘market’ mechanism not also to blame for fighting off the development and the subsidising of green energy while receiving subsidies itself (Niranjan, 2024)? Why should the ‘market’ thus play a role in combating climate change? This is another potential political barrier to progress at COP29.
On the ground, however, things look different than one might expect given all these points. Lynn De Miranda, one of the representatives of the Walker Institute on the ground in Baku, has mentioned that there are big discussions about the effect a US withdrawal from the Paris agreement would have, as well as if or how this would change the structure or technicalities of agreements such as the carbon credit market. The US election result is, however, simultaneously creating a sense of urgency to create effective and strong agreements between parties on the range of issues being discussed, including carbon markets and climate finance, a key issue of COP29. Theo Keeping, another representative on the ground, has mentioned that the year of elections is arguably having a positive impact by raising the profile of COP and encouraging leaders to attend. He also reports strong engagement from all parties, and that the EU has been particularly engaged, leading many negotiations. Seemingly, COP has managed to separate itself sufficiently enough from domestic politics to ensure smooth and effective running, but this is something we may see more clearly in the second week, when ministerial groups take over from negotiators to ratify negotiated agreements.
These are all complex issues that have been discussed and studied extensively, with the article presenting a more surface-level view. But a big question thus remains, is COP achieving something in the face of all these cracks, potential shortfalls or risks? If so, how is this occurring, given the potentially corrosive effect of ‘politics’ on negotiations? The answer seems to be that COP is still effective, and that this happens because of the way COP is structured, relating to the role identity plays in negotiations.
Professor Bernd Vogel at the Henley Business School discusses needing to step out of your social identity, the way you define yourself and what is projected in you by your key stakeholders, to reach agreements. Within leadership, negotiations, organisations, and conferences, there will always be interplay between individual, group, and other interests. While there may be different motivations driving people to act, according to the research of a colleague at Henley, Dr Loua Khalil, a key requirement is stepping out of the social identity you represent when negotiating. This allows space for overlapping motivations and understandings, which in turn can drive collaborative, effective change for a more aligned agenda. Even if for selfish reasons, those stepping out of their identity space can and should be worked with to effectively make progress, regardless of whether they are part of ‘your group’ or not, allowing participants to see and understand the other side.
This, it seems, is built into the COP process, which attempts to make the frameworks politically neutral, such as with the potential A6.4 ER mechanisms (Furness & Abnett, 2024), meaning anyone and everyone can (to an extent) participate, regardless of political identity or differing visions of how global warming should be addressed. This results in the incredible transformation of potentially vastly differing reasons for participation into tangible collective action, as everyone sits at the table and discusses these issues, working together to solve them. A concept that has been observed and is supported by Theo and Lynn on the ground.
While COP29 develops over the next two weeks, this will likely appear more and more, and it seems politics and COP29 interact in a constructive manner as COP manages to be politically agnostic in its frameworks, enabling political actors to step out of personal or group identities, allowing for progress and cohesive collaborative work, thus using politics to its advantage. It should be noted that this is my own personal view with the information at hand.
Works Cited
ARD-DeutschlandTREND, 2024. In your opinion, what is the most relevant political issue in Germany that needs to be solved as a matter of urgency? And which is the second most important?. [Online]
Available at: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1478805/most-relevant-political-issues-germany/
[Accessed 12 November 2024].
Frost, R., 2024. Climate change was a major US election issue in 2020. Why has it taken a back seat in 2024?. [Online]
Available at: https://www.euronews.com/green/2024/11/01/climate-change-was-a-major-us-election-issue-in-2020-why-has-it-taken-a-back-seat-in-2024
[Accessed 12 November 2024].
Furness, V. & Abnett, K., 2024. COP29 countries endorse global carbon market framework. [Online]
Available at: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/cop29-countries-endorse-global-carbon-market-framework-2024-11-11/
[Accessed 12 11 2024].
Jain, S., 2024. Climate change was a hidden force in India’s elections. Now Modi needs to deliver solutions.. [Online]
Available at: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/climate-change-india-elections-solutions/
[Accessed 12 November 2024].
McCarthy, A., 2023. Exxon disputed climate findings for years. Its scientists knew better.. [Online]
Available at: https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2023/01/harvard-led-analysis-finds-exxonmobil-internal-research-accurately-predicted-climate-change/
[Accessed 12 November 2024].
Niranjan, A., 2024. Oil industry has sought to block state backing for green tech since 1960s. [Online]
Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/mar/08/oil-industry-has-sought-to-block-state-backing-for-green-tech-since-1960s
[Accessed 12 November 2024].
OCHR, 2024. 2024 elections are testing democracy’s health. [Online]
Available at: https://www.ohchr.org/en/stories/2024/03/2024-elections-are-testing-democracys-health
[Accessed 12 November 2024].
