Written by Eme Dean-Lewis, PhD student with SCENARIO DTP, University of Reading.
08:00 On my way to my first day in the COP (Conference of the Parties) Climate Action Studio, (COPCAS), I take a short detour into the Harris Garden at the University of Reading, balance my laptop on a fallen tree trunk, and record a ‘meet the team’ video for the Walker Institute website.
09:00 After checking some of the overnight reporting, the COPCAS team’s first task in the studio is to join the morning briefing with our PhD student colleagues, Lynn and Theo, ‘on the ground’ in Baku. They report frustration from negotiators whose progress on Monday was hindered by a half-day delay in agreeing the meeting agendas. However, many negotiators are pleased that a decision was reached on the Paris Agreement’s Article 6.4 Mechanism. As PhD colleagues Mahi and Orestis explain in their blog, the Article 6.4 Mechanism is a carbon-credit trading system. It enables a ‘host’ nation which achieves more certified emissions reductions than promised in their NDC (Nationally Determined Contribution), to transfer surplus reductions to a ‘donor’, or purchasing, nation. Certified ‘Authorised Emission Reductions’ then count towards the donor nation’s own NDC even though the reductions were made by the host nation. It means a nation, probably one with a more developed economy, can buy emissions reductions to fill gaps in their own NDC performance.
10:00 During the morning, we monitor the plenary livestream from Baku of three-minute statements from world political leaders while researching topics of interest. Ilham Aliyev, President of Azerbaijan, includes a defence of fossil fuels as a natural resource. Orestis investigates Azerbaijan’s oil and gas exports as well as domestic renewable energy production. Ismail considers the impact of political representatives at COP29 in this year with general elections in sixty countries covering half the world’s population (UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights 2024).
12:00 We prepare for our lunchtime academic visitor, Professor Bernd Vogel from Henley Business School. Prof. Vogel asks us challenging questions on the leadership approaches we observe from world leaders. We discuss the extent to which his leadership work on harnessing ‘productive organisational energy’ (Vogel et al. 2022) can be applied to countries who need to work together if they are to address human-caused climate change. Agreement between just two countries with very different views on a topic is challenging to achieve. In the case of climate change, 198 countries are ‘parties to’, the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change). Reaching agreement between them all requires patient and determined diplomacy. Yiliang reminds us that annual COPs are not an end in themselves. They are successful if they lead, through equitable transition, to a net zero world where all live sustainably. We acknowledge that progress has been made in COPs over the last three decades, albeit much more slowly than climate science recommends.
14:00 Next, it is time for our afternoon briefing with the Baku team. As an accredited ‘Research and Independent Non-Governmental Organisation’ (RINGO), the Walker Institute has official ‘Observer’ access to public meetings held in the Blue Zone where formal negotiations and agreements of COP outcomes happen. Theo has attended a formal negotiation meeting for the NCQG (New Collective Quantified Goal) on behalf of all RINGO Observers. COP29 is often referred to as the ‘finance COP’. A key, hoped-for outcome is agreement on an ambitious NCQG. In Copenhagen, at COP15 (UNFCCC 2009), a goal for developed nations to ‘mobilise’ $100 billion per year by 2020 was set (Carbon Brief 2024). A mechanism to achieve this was included in the Paris Agreement, at COP21 (UNFCCC 2015), although the target was first achieved in 2022. The NCQG will update the ‘quantum’, or amount, and timescales of funds developed nations, such as the UK, will pay. Developing nations, for example, small island states at risk from already-rising sea levels, will withdraw those funds according to processes which also need agreement. NCQG funds will be used for adaptation and mitigation projects. Adaptation (NASA 2024) means adjusting for climate change which has already happened or is ‘baked in’ because of greenhouse gases which have already been released. Adaptation projects include improving flood defences or coastal communities moving further inland. Mitigation (NASA 2024) means taking actions to reduce and stabilise the volume of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere. Mitigation projects include investing in renewable energy generation and electric car production so that fossil fuels can be phased out. Several developing nations’ representatives say they need $1.0-1.3 trillion per year for the next 10 years (Carbon Brief 2024). Some have higher estimates. The negotiation Theo attended will hopefully lead to draft text for ministers to finalise in COP29’s second week. Following our reflections with Prof. Vogel on the difficulty for 198 countries to reach agreement, we are encouraged to hear Theo’s observation that, although many points remain outstanding, negotiators are choosing to seek solutions and show flexibility to accommodate time constraints.
15:00 Later in the afternoon, we join a livestream of a side event focused on developing new economic options for communities in the Amazon rainforest. Expert panels included Brazilian state Governors and other experts from Central and South America. Real-time translation from Spanish and Portuguese means we can follow the discussion. Ismail, and Orestis finish drafting their blogs.
16:00 As we reach the end of the session and the day, Secretary Lara from Mexico sums up for me the imperative for COP29 to succeed in reaching agreements and acting upon them when he remarks, ‘we all live in this small place called planet Earth, no-one can leave’. Oh My!
References:
Carbon Brief, 2024: COP29: What is the ‘new collective quantified goal’ on climate finance? – Carbon Brief. https://www.carbonbrief.org/cop29-what-is-the-new-collective-quantified-goal-on-climate-finance/ (Accessed November 5, 2024).
NASA, 2024: Mitigation and Adaptation – NASA Science. https://science.nasa.gov/climate-change/adaptation-mitigation/ (Accessed November 14, 2024).
UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, 2024: 2024 elections are testing democracy’s health | OHCHR. https://www.ohchr.org/en/stories/2024/03/2024-elections-are-testing-democracys-health (Accessed November 12, 2024).
UNFCCC, 2009: Copenhagen COP15 Report. https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2009/cop15/eng/11a01.pdf (Accessed November 5, 2024).
UNFCCC, 2015: Paris COP21 report. https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/10a01.pdf (Accessed November 5, 2024).
Vogel, B., A. M. L. Raes, and H. Bruch, 2022: Mapping and managing productive organizational energy over time: The Energy Pattern Explorer tool. Long Range Plann, 55, 102213, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.LRP.2022.102213.
