Written by Ismail Beyaz, PhD student with SCENARIO DTP, University of Surrey, UK.
With COP29 ending, it is becoming clearer that things are getting more stressful as time goes on. This COP was important due to its role as ‘the finance COP’, having to build on the COP28 agreement to phase out fossil fuels. So far, up until the final day, it arguably has not met either of these goals, with no agreements occurring in the first half of the final day and delegations struggling to agree on key issues.
The mood is depressing, say our representatives Juan Valencia and Thea Stevens on the ground, with COP29 deadlocked as negotiations groups lack flexibility and developed countries refraining from speaking clearly about what needs to be done to address the situation of climate finance. Epitomised in part by Ed Miliband, who only mentioned the importance about climate finance, but not discussing that a figure is needed, let alone what that figure would look like. The inability to agree on a figure for climate finance risks labelling COP29 as a failure, with much work then needing to be done over the next half year during which the landscape of COP and climate agreements may radically change.
In general, there have been extensive discussions of whether COP is still fit for purpose. Many of such discussions conclude that COP is no longer able to carry out the role it was designed for. These discussions often focus on Azerbaijan’s presidency this year, which according to Mohamed Adow of Power Shift Africa, described as “one of the worst in recent memory” and “one of the most poorly led and chaotic COP meetings ever” (Gayle, 2024). Additionally, many are also upset with the amount of fossil fuel lobbyists with access to COP29, with 1,773 ‘delegates’, making it the 4th largest represented group at COP29 (Harvey, et al., 2024), with some experts signing a letter stating that “it is now clear that the COP is no longer fit for purpose. Its current structure simply cannot deliver the change at exponential speed and scale, which is essential to ensure a safe climate landing for humanity” (James, 2024).
Even with all of this, COP29 still could have delivered on its agenda, including an agreement on climate finance, and building off the platform provided by COP28 in the UAE, which agreed to phase out fossil fuels. Neither of these have happened to far. As of this writing, no agreement has been reached on the amount of climate finance for developing nations, with the agreement so far only including the statement “At least USD [X] trillion annually” (Seabrook, 2024) reflecting little progress. This makes it seem that COP29 will not accomplish getting an agreement on finance even though it is referred to as ‘the finance COP’. Furthermore, the other key goal involved preventing backsliding on agreements made at COP28, specifically with regards to the phase out of fossil fuels. This has also been a point of contention thus far, with the UAE having to ‘step in’ against Saudi Arabia, which had been blocking any commitments about transitioning away from fossil fuels (Gayle, 2024).
The outcome of COP29 remains uncertain, but one lesson is evident: future COPs must evolve to maintain their relevance. Structural reforms, increased accountability, and a greater focus on tangible outcomes are essential to restore trust in the process. COPs cannot continue to go down to the wire or having such pervasive issues in terms of structure and organisation in the eyes of experts. Regardless of what happens in the last hours of the negotiations, regardless of what number is decided on (if any), regardless of any backsliding or reaffirmations of COP28 agreements, such mistakes cannot be repeated, as the whole concept of COP is rapidly becoming less and less accepted by some as demonstrated by the regular protests at the event (Walling, et al., 2024). Even if COP29 provides successes in terms of incremental progress and successes in more ‘peripheral’ protection of biodiversity, rainforests, etc, these incremental changes risk becoming smaller and smaller, even if a ‘success’ in absolute terms.
Works Cited
Gayle, D., 2024. Cop 29 live: UAE steps in amid Saudi blocking of commitment to transition away from fossil fuels. [Online]
Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/live/2024/nov/22/cop-29-live-poor-countries-may-have-to-compromise-on-climate-funding-says-former-un-envoy?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-674057488f087ff7bcc430e1#block-674057488f087ff7bcc430e1
[Accessed 22 November 2024].
Harvey, F., Noor, D., Carrington, D. & Niranjan, A., 2024. Cop summits ‘no longer fit for purpose’, say leading climate policy experts. [Online]
Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/nov/15/cop-summits-no-longer-fit-for-purpose-say-leading-climate-policy-experts
[Accessed 22 November 2024].
James, W., 2024. COP climate talks not fit for purpose and need reform, say climate leaders. [Online]
Available at: https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/cop-climate-talks-not-fit-purpose-need-reform-say-climate-leaders-2024-11-15/
[Accessed 22 November 2024].
Seabrook, V., 2024. Developed countries at COP29 urged to put a figure on climate cash as deadline looms. [Online]
Available at: https://news.sky.com/story/developed-countries-at-cop29-urged-to-put-a-figure-on-climate-cash-as-deadline-looms-13257572
[Accessed 22 November 2024].
Walling, M., Arasu, S. & Borenstein, S., 2024. Protesters gather at UN climate talks in global day of action as progress on a deal slows. [Online]
Available at: https://apnews.com/article/cop29-united-nations-climate-talks-baku-fossil-fuels-11b80aa8b934cc4ccb82aea0b8660e4c
[Accessed 22 November 2024]
